As you see the axis of Heavy snow set up around 50 miles North of where we anticipated it would. Another example of how difficult it is to pin down winter weather and where exactly things will set up until the event occurs. Models provide “guidance” for forecasting weather systems, they cant tell us the future. 

That is why I like using our long term forecasting tool. We are able to let you know when storm systems will be in the area based on past history. We can’t provide the synoptic details until the event gets closer but we have an idea of what to expect weatherwise up to a few months in advance.

This is what WAS forecast ( based on models) 
 This is what actually occurred:
  

Here is the difference in miles:

 
Additionally, the accumulation that was forecast (max of 4 inches ) was just half of the actual amount of snow that fell where the heavy snow axis set up. Many reports of 6-8 inches of Snow, that is significant as well. 

This is why it is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT to keep up to date during Winter Weather events.

THIS WEEKEND

Let’s watch an see how this weekends MAJOR Winter Storm plays out- Confidence has been VERY HIGH with most models that a HIGH IMPACT storm would effect the Mid Atlantic/Southern New England – let’s see how it goes.

With the Warm part of this storm we are expecting a Severe Weather outbreak in the Mid South through the Florida panhandle, today into the OVERNIGHT.

  
Back closer to home, we warm up some this weekend and get some sunshine – Our next significant storm has been showing up on the models for some time and it coincides with our Long Range forecast. The Central Plains should see a Storm system around Feb 1st – will it be a Cold storm or Warm storm? Where exactly will it develop?  Those are all questions we will be trying to get answers to in the next few days.

Have a good day everyone!

Questions, please ask!