WHAT AN INTERESTING PATTERN THATS DEVELOPING….
Hello Weather Watchers!
The Pattern has been INCREDIBLY boring for us Weather enthusiasts for the last several WEEKS!! We did have a Trace of snow as a piece of energy moved through just about 10 days ago that moved through Central/Northern KS
Our Temperatures have averaged Below Normal the last 14 days.
We have seen multiple cold fronts with no moisture as the flow we have been in has been a fast moving Zonal flow which is moves systems very quickly West to East.
Take a look at the 500 mb level:
In addition to the Zonal (West to East) Flow there has been an area of High Pressure over Northern Mexico which has been camped out for some time – it has prevented moisture from moving North due to its clockwise flow.
CHANGES ARE COMING….
We utilize “teleconnections” in the Fall/Winter seasons only. They are important pieces of Model data that give us indications of what to expect temperature wise- especially when it comes to Polar Vortex pieces of energy.
Let’s look at the forecast that the “AO” or Arctic Oscillation is showing. The model data shows the AO going into a deeply negative territory around Thanksgiving. This usually means a SIGNIFICANT arctic blast heading South that will affect the Central US and East.
If the model continues to show this much of a negative index this could be a our first Arctic blast of the season.
Here is the current AO forecast:
The other index we Watch is the NAO- North American Oscillation- the more negative this Index is the further East we see the core of the Cold air shift.
The long range models are starting show the potential of this pattern change with the 500mb winds becoming amplified around the 21st to 22nd (troughs and ridges). This is the 18z GFS run showing the transition from a Zonal flow to Amplified flow.
This is a VERY EARLY indication of what we are thinking for this Winter….It is subject to change – THE NEXT 3-4 weeks are going to tell us a lot!
For now this is what we are thinking….
Our official 2017-2018 Longterm forecast should be out by Dec 5th….let’s see if our thinking changes much in the next 30 days.
If you have questions- please ask- we didn’t go into a lot of detail but will be glad to discuss our thoughts with you.
Have a good evening Weather Watchers!
If you have travel plans around Thanksgiving, please stay tuned as we see some travel issues around that Holiday into the Holiday weekend..