We were asked a great question by Weather Watcher Chris Wornkey Jr- here is his question followed by our response. 

Chris Wornkey Jr:   In this day and age full of technology how are we so off on forcasts still? If it is snow or storms its always 50-100+ miles off if anything does happen at all. It seems like now we hear about what went wrong after nothing happens. Makes people not take the weather seriously when it gets over hyped every single time.
Weather Watchers response:
Great question Chris! We have talked about it a lot in the last few days- “Cut off Low”

The saying when forecasting Cut-off Lows is:

” The cut-off Low is the Weather persons woe” 

This storm is very different from other storm systems we deal with. Most storms develop, strengthen and move on. This one is still spinning and wobbling and will likely continue to do that through Wednesday before its falls apart and is picked up in the flow and shot out of the area.

  
The cut-off low that we have been dealing with is one of the hardest things to forecast. Literally, you have to “now cast” this Low which means you have to continually keep track of the Low and what it is doing and where it is spinning.

The cut-off Low is not part of any upper air pattern which are typically the highways for normal storm systems.

See below: 
  Perfect example – the Low in Western CO was totally on its own just hanging out spinning – throwing pieces of energy off of it as it spins. ( this was the forecast, not actually what occurred) The 582 my line in South was further SE in reality 

 Why this system was discussed so many days before is the blocking pattern that was in place just to the East. An Omega block was limiting the movement of this system- we used the analogy of a traffic jam last night. 

  
The blocking pattern that was in place moved ever so slightly which allowed around a 50 mile East movement of the training rain echoes that were heading North. If you remember initially, I-135 was where the moisture gradient was going to be- separating heavy flooding rains to almost nothing by 25-50 miles. If we would have had the blocking pattern in place it would have been even more difficult to forecast.

Additionally, unanticipated Severe storms in South Central Texas borrowed/Stole moisture from the storms we were anticipating. That Block was to prevent that from occurring. 

As far as hyping weather- we try not to do that – we are here and have always been here (5 years this year) to teach people about weather. 

You can look up the National Weather Service sites, TV sites as they are a dime a dozen with all there cool Apps and radars- we don’t have that. All we have is the ability to answer questions and try and explain the What, Where, When and Why of Weather.

I don’t know of another site like ours that actually takes time to converse with their followers. We do that as much as we can – which we think is a huge difference and why our site would crash during significant weather events when we would get 30,000 hits in 20 minutes ( it now can handle 70,000 hits) 
I hope this helps you answer your question.

We will be happy to answer any other questions that any one else might have..
Thanks for your comment Chris
Weather Watchers

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