WHAT WE KNOW…..ARCTIC AIR WATCH…..
Hello Weather Watchers!
Let’s take a look at what we know based on our own organic weather forecasting technique.
We know based on the chilly temperatures we experienced in late October and early November that those temperatures would repeat 46-50 days later with seasonal differences. The seasonal difference is that we are expecting much colder air than we saw in the Fall as there is much more snow cover North of the border now. We are anticipating much below average temperatures lasting around 10-14 day beginning next Friday.
We also know that there is likely going to be a storm close by because of previous systems 46-50 days ago.
In the next few days we will have a much better grasp on what to expect during the pre-Christmas weekend into actual Holiday week.
Current indications are that the Central Plains will see COLD temperatures with a couple reinforcing shots of cold to very cold air during the Holiday week between Christmas Eve through New Years.
Many of you are asking if we see any moisture close by? Again, the likelihood of a storm somewhere close by is moderate based on our organic forecasting technique.
The temperature differences will play a big part in who sees what as well as where the important baroclinic zone sets up- that is one of our big factors…
The baroclinic zone is the area circled in Purple. Cold air to the North and Warm air to the South.
Pieces of energy aka Storm systems like to follow that baroclinic line – so depending on where it sets up that will let us know where to expect weather concerns.
In the example above Cold air from the North seeping South and that cold air sinks toward the surface and warm air rises giving those on the Northside of this baroclinic line the chance for ICE or freezing rain/drizzle.
WHAT WE DON’T KNOW JUST YET…..
Here is the Euro models temps for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day…
Based on the Baroclinic zone above – a system moving SW to NE would be in the right place to provide KS and OK some Winter Weather….
THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS….WILL WE HAVE A PIECE OF ENERGY CLOSE AND WILL THESE TEMPERATURE MODELS LOOK THE SAME IN 5 DAYS….
Something we will watch using the models…
THIS WEEKS WEATHER:
Get your Christmas shopping done by Thursday…..Expect temps in the 50s to around 60 Statewide.
FRIDAY a STRONG COLD FRONT will have moved through expect temps only in the 30s for HIGHS….
Saturday and Christmas Eve – CLOUDY AND COLD Highs in the 20s-30s WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW….
Christmas Day – COLD, Highs in the 20s….