Where are we pattern wise? What cycle are we in? Weekend snow & cold….DROUGHT update….
Hello Weather Watchers.
This Saturday’s system is the same system that moved through right before Christmas.
Remember that our pattern this year has produced around a 45-50 day cycle with 47.5-48 days being the mean.
Saturdays system is the system that put down 1-3″ of Snow/Sleet over Central KS in a West to East swath on the night before Christmas Eve.
Most travel troubles were on that Sat evening during the event and then Sunday, Christmas Eve morning.
This was 9:54 PM on Dec 23- the Snow was a clipper system as cold air moved South into the Central Plains.
This was McPherson County which was on the Southern edge of the system – Hutchinson saw nothing that night except COLD temps.
This was Weather Watcher image that someone sent in from Central KS-
This was our forecast which was dead on.
How will this system act as it moves through??? Looking at the upper level dynamics- it looks very similar. A very quick hitting system. It will be very interesting to watch what happens. We are in Cycle 3 now. The Christmas event was Cycle 2.
This is what models are forecasting Saturday night into Sunday:
This will be interesting to Watch!!!
We will keep you posted on this weekends system…..
OUR CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE 1″- 4″ Late Sat into Sun along and North of US56….which runs from Ness City to LaCrosse to Lyons to Emporia and points North.
This was followed by our COLDEST TEMPERATURES of Winter!! An Arctic Outbreak with Wind Chills of -25 occurred- will that happen again- Yes, but maybe not so widespread because of seasonal differences or inter-seasonal oscillations.
A Winter Storm was also showing up on the models a week before New Years Eve-
Look what is showing up on the Models for early next weekend….just like what happened in Cycle 2… This will be interesting to watch develop as it follows “The Pattern”
We will look at the upper levels (500mb) tomorrow and compare them.
Don’t buy in to this model for the following weekends storm – it will change greatly….guaranteed….
SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT EXPANDING
I wish we had better news on this front.
I saw a statistic last night that put into perspective the seriousness of our drought. It’s been close to 1500 days since Wichita has had a 3+ inch snow!! That is just over 3 years!!
Dodge City is around 800 days or just 4 months from 2 years without a 3+ inch snow.
Amarillo hasn’t had ANY MEASURABLE MOISTURE since October!
Here are the latest drought updates- It is expanding rather than contracting. This is concerning for our upcoming “Fire season” which in my 35-40 years of living in the Central US is something I don’t ever remember being a concern- please feel free to correct me if I’m wrong.
Have a great day everyone-
Look for that SIGNIFICANT cool down tomorrow as the day continues temps will drop! Teens North to 50 far Southeast by mid to later afternoon- then very chilly into the weekend!