Hello Weather Watchers!

Let’s look at the storm we just had this weekend- 

Heavy snow in Western Kansas with flooding 2-4″ rains in Central and Eastern Kansas-amazingly wet storm for December. If we would have had real cold air can you imagine the Snow storm we would have had??

Snow totals:

  
Rainfall reported NW of Hutchinson:

  
Let’s look ahead but first we need to review what we look at that gives us a clue to when we see cold air heading South out of Canada where the Cold air has been bottled up.

  
Above is a Weather chart that documents the Arctic Oscillation.The middle straight line on the chart is the line that delineates positive from negative. The higher the oscillating line moves indicates positive territory- when that line goes below the middle straight black line it indicates negative territory. As you can see, the Oscillating line has been above the median line which indicates the AO has been in a positive to very positive position this entire week Fall. The first dip is anticipated this week- what that means is that colder air will sink South into the Central Plains and East of the Rockies….The AO begins to dip around the 15th (1) or tomorrow and then quickly retreats back to the positive by the 18th (2).

Here are the forecast maps for later tomorrow:

  
Here is the forecast for Thurs 12/17 when our temps are supposed to be the coldest before then the AO goes back into the positive.

 
 If you look at the AO forecast chart notice it peaks around the 21st and then heads back towards the negative. 
We are 10 days out from Christmas- based on our long range forecast technique we should have a storm in the area around the 23-26….that storm has been showing up for close to a week now. The key to having a White Christmas are a couple things- Will it be cold enough to Snow?? Will the Storm continue to show up on the models.

We are confident a Storm will be close by as the pattern is repeating- the MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION is will we have the needed cold air? Will the storm be strong enough to create its own cold air if the AO stays positive??

You will have to stay tuned!!

Here are the current models which indicate some snow for Christmas Eve…THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE- for you Weather enthusiasts we are sharing this with you as there is nothing better than a White Christmas!!

  
Questions, please ask!