Hello Weather Watchers!

A piece of energy is taking aim at the Central Plains this coming Friday into Saturday.

A much needed rainfall event is possible IF we can get good return flow of Gulf moisture to the Central Plains by the end of the week.

Multiple models have been consistent with this feature – we just want to wait a few days before we totally commit to this solution.

– if you go back 46-48 days ( from April 19, when the system is supposed to develop) and then 92-96 prior to that you will see we had some moisture that fell in January and only a Trace that fell March 4th.

These are the March statistics for Wichita:

These are the January statistics for Wichita:

As we have told you time and time again – what repeats is the upper air pattern WITH SEASONAL DIFFERENCES, not what happens at the surface. This is exactly what we are seeing.

From the 20th of April through the first week of May we should see what we saw in January and again March but on a more widespread basis as we should have Gulf moisture available, unlike this past Winter.

Will this period be a drought buster? Not likely but it is part of the cycling pattern that has the best chances for measurable moisture as seen in pervious cycles and mainly over the Eastern 1/4 of the State.

Here is the precipitation potential forecast by the GFS just over the next 7 days:

Over the next 12 days:

Let’s see how this coming weekends systems acts before getting to far ahead of ourselves even though our past cycles did show moisture during this period but only in that Eastern 1/4- let’s be cautious on the amounts forecast.

The Euro Models which only goes out 10 days or 240 hours shows 1-3″ rains over most of the State through 7AM Sunday the 22nd:

We trust our forecast technique and this time frame is when precipitation is favorable based on systems that moved through this same time frame in the previous cycles – the just didn’t have the Gulf of Mexico moisture to work with unlike now- which is a seasonal difference.

Do we think we will continue with rollercoaster temperatures through the summer and a return to below average moisture- for sure on both!! Well above average temps followed by well below average temps. We will likely see a few Nocturnal storm complexes from the Northwest flow we have been in especially if we can get some of our soil moisture restored- that plays a part in evapotranspiration with Corn an Milo.

Additionally, as we said a couple months ago- we are still looking for what appears to be another active tropical season….more on that next next month.