Good morning Weather Watchers-

Yesterday was a preview of what to expect as Spring approaches. Multiple Fires were reported in many areas of the State. We were all very lucky… Today the threat continues especially in SW KS where CRITICAL conditions will exist. Many other locations across Central and Eastern parts of KS have an ELEVATED risk of Wild fires.

Here are this morning Regional Conditions

You can see the approaching Cold front moving SE… Strong Southwest winds ahead of the front are already cranking up this morning over the Eastern half of the State.

Temperatures will reach into the upper 50s with a Stronger Cold “back door ” Cold front moving in Sunday night into Monday – we call it a back door Cold front as it will enter the State from the East Northeast and move West. It will be short lived as the front moves out of the area by Tuesday returning Temperatures to above average for most of next week with breezy conditions and Fire Weather returning.

Not seeing any moisture…

Arctic Air should return to the area between Feb 8 and Feb 10 based on our forecasting technique. Will seasonal differences moderate this Cold Air some? Will it shift to the East quicker or will it be reinforced and last for 10-14 day like we saw in Cycles 1&2? Those are unknowns but we do know MUCH COLDER temps will return around that time frame….

Long Range Models are already hinting at the return of the Arctic intrusion- this is the GFS Model from yesterday for Feb 9th showing highs in the TEENS!

This is today’s Model Run showing Arctic Air showing up around the 8th

Right on schedule….

We hope you are following along with us keeping track when Systems should return- it allows you to plan ahead especially when weather affects your business.

What do you think of our Cycling Weather Pattern theory? Do you understand it? Have you seen it work?

Please ask questions – let’s discuss it….

Have a great day!

Weather Watchers!