Hi everyone- 

We want to show you what is happening around the region now and what we are looking at to refine the forecast. There are still a couple of questions that we probably won’t figure out until tomorrow afternoon/evening. 

Let’s dive in…

Here is the current temperatures showing where the Cold front is- we can tell by wind direction where the front is. Moisture is still being drawn into the storm in the upper levels- that’s why we have those orange arrows pointing North. 

  
Satellite image showing the moisture and the Cold front..

  
The surface Low we have been talking about all week is forming is strengthening in New Mexico and will be close to El Paso TX by 6 pm this evening- we will verify that by satellite and by Surface pressures.

 
 The low moves North Sunday- by Sunday night it is forecast to be over SE OK: 
 The arrows that I put above the Low are very important as if the Low goes North as the NAM model is forecasting the better chances for Heavy Snow from Western KS into Southern Central KS ( the Euro is predicting that as well)

If the Low takes more of a NNE track and heads between Columbia and St Louis the moisture moves East reducing Snow totals.

Take a look at the difference in the moisture just a 75 mile wobble in the track of the Low. 

Here is the GFS- now compare it to the NAM and EURO.. 
The path that is closer to KC has more moisture for SW and Eastern KS. Can you see the difference?

 
  Here is the Euro
  
I hope you understand how important the track of these surface lows are in forecasting Significant Storm. How just 50-75 miles can make such a difference…pretty amazing isn’t it??

Here is the current Regional Maps and Radar showing the moisture with a piece of energy heading towards Kansas…

Notice the Tornado Watch in the Southern Plains- Several tornados have occurred.

  
The radar show the potential for some freezing drizzle around Great Bend. Can anyone confirm that?   

  
As this Storm begins to develop, we are COUNTING ON YOU TO:

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Even though the MAIN SYSTEM IS WAY SOUTH- it is shooting out pieces of energy – these pieces of energy will continue to increase in intensity as the main system gets closer- Sunday, Sunday night and Monday will be the most intense part of the storm as it moves NNE out of the area. 

Hope you enjoyed this update-

We will let you know if we see any changes in Accumulations ..

LASTLY- if you are headed to the Chiefs game in KC tomorrow- you could have travel troubles getting there and bigger troubles getting home as that is when the storm should be closer and intensifying. BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL as we see it now…..

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THANKS!!