Hi Weather Watchers, what an AMAZING few days of weather we will get to experience in the next 2-3 weeks. 

What we are Watching in the upper levels (500mb to 250mb) is VERY IMPORTANT to how the Long Term pattern will set up and then repeat every 45-50 days through this time next year.

Let look at the upper levels- 500mb or 18,000 ft above the surface.

Here is the GFS Model today 1pm-

  

FRIDAY- Remember the rectangles?

  
Well let’s back up- remember what a trough is? What a ridge is?

Looking West we see a trough that is developing over Southern CA Northeast into Colorado. That red rectangle represents the area of the trough that will provide inclimate weather. It is this area that has the greatest amount of rising air-lift, instability, moisture. If we would draw a similar rectangle on the other side of the trough that rectangle would represent sinking stable air- cooler and dryer air.

These troughs are defined as positively tilted, neutral and negatively tilted. 

The trough in the Western US is a positively tilted trough.

The trough in the SE US has just a SLIGHT negative tilt to it.

Troughs that are negatively tiled are stronger slower systems–Winter Storms that develop in the 4 corners that are negatively tilted are our significant Winter Storms.

Ok- that was a review for you –

Here is the Saturday 500mb- notice the main part of the storm looks to effect areas of Western KS- this is why precip chances have gone down for South Central KS for Saturday – as the best dynamics for Saturday are likely West of a Russell to Pratt line AS IT STANDS NOW…

  
Here is Sunday’s forecast 500mb- interesting isn’t it? Another storm developing in the Western US:

  
 As this West Coast system moves into the Central Plains by Midweek – what do you see??

What would you want to look at next if you saw this storm system moving into the area?

 

LETS TALK JOAQUIN…..

The Bahamas are getting ripped apart this evening by a Category 4 Hurricane. Winds of 130mph and a Central pressure of 931mb..WOW!

This is odd to see such a significant Hurricane in the Atlantic during such a STRONG El Niño –

Here are the current thoughts-

I’m still not sure  that we will see landfall with Joaquin- THATS NOT

THE PROBLEM…..Significant rainfall has began to fall in the areas expecting significant rainfall. 

They are in a bad spot for an INCREDIBLE amounts of moisture if this current solution plays out.

I think some areas of South Carolina could see TWO FEET OF RAIN even if the Hurricane stays out in the Atlantic.

  
Even if I lived in Eastern Georgia- I would definitely be paying close attention to this storm.

  FLASH FLOOD WATCHES cover the Mid-Atlantic State through Monday.

If you have travel plans to the East Coast or the Bahamas – you might want to make alternative plans.

 
If you have questions- please ask

Lastly- not impressed with the moisture potential for KS this weekend.

It will be cool and cloudy with showers possible Saturday.

A great autumn weekend for Kansas..